The 2016 presidential election has received a great deal of press with continuous analysis of the latest 2016 presidential polls. One challenge to this approach of reporting on 2016 presidential polls is that the results can vary — alot. For example, back on May 17th, a CBS News / New York Times poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by six points. The very next day, Rasmussen comes out with a poll showing that Trump is ahead by five points. So what is the public supposed to think? Does Hillary have a solid lead or is it Trump? Are both polls right and the electorate changed their mind overnight? Should we average the two polls and call it a statistical dead heat? Or should we rely on a cable news political operative to tell us why the latest poll favors their candidate?
This Poll Hive 2016 Presidential Polls page is designed to bring some degree of clarity to the 2016 presidential election. It presents an average of polls (aka poll of polls) from reputable pollsters. This page is updated frequently with charts and tables updated several times per day if required. So feel free to refresh this page to make sure you have the latest and don’t forget to bookmark or share this page and track this unique election as it unfolds.
2016 Presidential Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart shows the Poll Hive average for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump from August 2015.
Points of interest: Notice how Trump’s numbers shot up in August 2015 as he burst on to the political scene. Also, notice how since that time the polls have remained largely range bound (with one exception) with Hillary clocking in at 48.5% to 50.5% and Trump coming in at 43% to 45%. Also, notice how the Poll Hive average doesn’t fluctuate wildly. This is likely more representative of voter intent. It seems more reasonable to assume that voters are not changing their mind daily based on the latest news report.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to the first chart.
Points of interest: This election cycle has had more than its share of drama. However, there appears to have been only a few events that have significantly impacted the polls to date. First, the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Second, the suspension of Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign. Also, Trump does appear to have received a convention bounce and that convention bounce appears to have been aided by Trump’s selection of Mike Pence a few days prior. As for Hillary Clinton’s convention bounce — she got one and it appears to have resulted in bringing each candidates poll numbers right back to where they have typically stood (e.g. 48.5% to 50.5% for Hillary and 43% to 45% for Trump). As for the impact of the debate — a small bounce for Hillary.
2016 Presidential Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: Except for August to September time-frame which involved the rise of Trump and the mid-March to mid-May which had some notable news events, Hillary Clinton has been leading Donald Trump by 3% to 7%. As a reminder, the Poll Hive average does include for the impact of third (and fourth) party candidates. So if the election were held today, this would be the highest probability outcome.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as the third but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: Notice how the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was followed by a change in the spread from +4% to +10% for Hillary Clinton. Also, note how the suspension of Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign, which made Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee, resulted in the spread declining by around four percentage points. Since then, all major events have resulted in relatively small, short-term bounce that remained within the predominate range of 3% to 7% in favor of Clinton. This range has held despite a couple of October (i.e. Access Hollywood tape, FBI’s reopening of its email investigation) and even one November surprise (i.e. FBI’s closing of its email investigation).
2016 Presidential Polls: Third Party Candidate
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: The chart illustrates that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s poll numbers are high enough to impact this election. Recent polling suggests that the two third party candidates will impact Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers slightly more than Donald Trump’s. In a tight race, this could make a difference.