Since and including the 1992 presidential election, Florida has proven to be especially pivotal. During this period, no presidential candidate has won the state by more than 6%. Of course, there is still debate as to who truly won Florida in 2000 — hanging chads notwithstanding. By the way, the official record has it that George W. Bush beat Al Gore by 537 votes. Not the biggest of margins considering nearly six million votes were cast. In addition, whichever candidate won Florida since and including 1964 has gone on to occupy the White House in each election except one (1992). With Florida providing the winner 29 electoral votes, it’s not difficult to see why. Therefore, in order to get a good read on this crucial battleground state, this page has been created to monitor the Florida polls.
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2016 Florida Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart illustrates the Florida Poll Hive average for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump since August 2015.
Points of interest: While the Florida polls suggest that this race is a toss-up, Hillary Clinton does have a slight edge.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to Chart 1.
Points of interest: The pattern exhibited in the Florida polls is similar to that of the national polls. However, it appears that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia may have played a role in significantly eliminating Trump’s early lead. Also, the race has been fairly steady since the conventions.
2016 Florida Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: Each candidate has held around a 6% to 8% lead at one point. More recently, however, the race has been very close.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as Chart 3 but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia appears to have helped Hillary Clinton go from a five point deficit all the way to a eight point lead. Donald Trump did gain some ground after he became the presumptive Republican nominee. However, since the conventions, the race for Florida has been a statistical dead heat with a slight edge for Clinton.
2016 Florida Polls: Third Party Candidates
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: With the race in Florida being fairly close, its possible that the two “third party” candidates could impact the outcome. Early polling suggests that Johnson and Stein will impact Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers ever so slightly more than that of Donald Trump.