This Poll Hive 2016 North Carolina Polls page illustrates the sentiment of this all important swing state by presenting an average of polls (aka poll of polls). North Carolina has typically leaned Republican. Since 1980, North Carolina has given all of its electoral votes (currently 15 electoral votes) to the Republican candidate in all but one presidential election. That one exception occurred in 2008 when Barack Obama won the state by the slimmest of margins (0.3%). While 2008 was the closest race since 1980, there were a couple of other nail biters — 1980 when Ronald Reagan won by 2.1% and 1992 when George H.W. Bush won by 0.8%. Recent history suggests that the Republican candidate needs to win the Tar Heel State to have a chance at winning the overall election.
This page is continuously updated as new polls are published. So feel free to refresh this page to make sure you have the latest.
2016 North Carolina Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart illustrates the North Carolina Poll Hive average for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump since August 2015.
Points of interest: The latest polls suggest that North Carolina is moving in Trump’s favor. Remember, previous elections suggest that the Republican candidate needs to win North Carolina in order to have a chance at winning the White House. So as it stands now, team Trump should be relatively happy with the latest North Carolina polls.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to Chart 1.
Points of interest: It appears that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia helped Hillary Clinton in the polls. All that ground was lost after Ted Cruz suspended his campaign leaving Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee. Clinton rebounded after she became her party’s presumptive nominee and Trump gained beginning a little before the conventions. North Carolina has been a seesaw battle.
2016 North Carolina Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: This race has flipped several times since August 2015. However, recent polls have went Trump’s way and, as a result, a slight lead. However, this race should still be considered a statistical tie.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as Chart 3 but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: Notice how passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia appears to have helped Hillary Clinton. However, that lead was reduced after Ted Cruz suspended his campaign. This is the similar to what happened at the national level. Also, notice the very significant swing towards Trump beginning in mid-August.
2016 North Carolina Polls: Third Party Candidates
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: With the race in North Carolina being rather close, its possible that “third party” candidates Johnson and Stein could impact the outcome. Early polling suggests that Johnson and Stein will impact Donald Trump’s poll numbers slightly more than that of Hillary Clinton. This is likely due to the fact that Jill Stein did not make the ballot in North Carolina.