For a presidential election, history tells us that Ohio polls are important. The reason for this is that Ohio is a true battleground state. Since 1976, Ohio has voted for the Democratic candidate the same number of times as that of the Republican candidate (5 to 5). Not only that. Whichever candidate won Ohio since and including 1964, has gone on to occupy the White House. So Ohio is not just a swing state but a crucial one at that. This isn’t altogether surprising considering that the winner of Ohio gets 18 electoral votes. Also consider that so far this millennium, no presidential contender has won Ohio by more than 5%.
This Poll Hive 2016 Ohio Polls page illustrates the sentiment of this all important swing state by presenting an average of polls (aka poll of polls). This page is continuously updated as new polls are published. So feel free to refresh this page to make sure you have the latest.
2016 Ohio Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart illustrates the Ohio Poll Hive average for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump since August 2015.
Points of interest: While Ohio is still technically a toss-up, the momentum as well as the spread is in Trump’s favor. Remember, previous elections suggest that as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to Chart 1.
Points of interest: While there wasn’t enough early Ohio polling to make any firm conclusions, it does appear that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia helped Hillary Clinton’s campaign — briefly. More recently, Trump has opened up a slight lead.
2016 Ohio Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: The latest polls are giving a slight edge to Trump.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as Chart 3 but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia appears to have helped Hillary Clinton in Ohio. However, much of that lead was given back after Ted Cruz suspended his campaign. More recently, Trump has regained the lead that he enjoyed back in February.
2016 Ohio Polls: Third Party Candidates
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: This chart includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. With the race in Ohio being fairly close, its possible that these two “third party” candidates could impact the outcome. Polling to date suggests that Johnson and Stein will drop Clinton’s poll numbers slightly more than that of Donald Trump. This race is close enough to where that could make the difference.