In past presidential elections, Pennsylvania has, on occasion, been closely contested. As a result, it sometimes falls into the category of a battleground state. That said, the Democratic candidate has won the state of Pennsylvania in every election since 1992. So why bother with Pennsylvania polls? First, several of those Democratic victories were fairly close. For example, John Kerry beat George W. Bush by a mere two and a half percentage points in 2004. In the 2000 election, Al Gore bested George W. Bush by four percentage points. Second, the results of previous elections suggest that when the Democratic candidate wins Pennsylvania by more than four points, they go on to take the White House. Of course, this election could be different but that is what the case has been since 1980.
This Poll Hive 2016 Pennsylvania Polls page is designed to bring some degree of clarity to the 2016 presidential election by presenting an average of polls (aka poll of polls) from reputable pollsters. This page is updated throughout the day. So feel free to refresh this page to make sure you have the latest. Feel free to bookmark or share this page and follow this historic election as it unfolds.
2016 Pennsylvania Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart illustrates the Pennsylvania Poll Hive average for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump since August 2015.
Points of interest: Over the past month, Hillary Clinton has significantly extended her lead. However, keep in mind that previous elections suggest that the Republican candidate doesn’t necessarily have to win Pennsylvania. Instead, keeping it close has been indicative of a sufficient amount of national support to ultimately win the White House. Though with both Virginia and Colorado leaning more blue over the past decade, losing Pennsylvania while winning the White House has become less likely of a scenario — not impossible but much more difficult.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to Chart 1.
Points of interest: As is the case with the national polls, it does appear that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and the suspension of Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign had an impact. This is similar to the pattern exhibited in the national polls. It is worth noting that unlike the national polls, Trumps doesn’t appear to have received a post-convention bounce while Hillary Clinton did. More recently, the race for Pennsylvania has stayed steady.
2016 Pennsylvania Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: Hillary Clinton maintains a significant lead as she has for most of this election cycle.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as Chart 3 but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia appears to have helped Hillary Clinton improve to a double digit lead. However, those gains were short lived. Hillary Clinton’s did receive a significant post-convention bounce which has largely held until election day.
2016 Pennsylvania Polls: Third Party Candidates
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: With the race in Pennsylvania being fairly close, its possible that these two “third party” candidates could impact the outcome. The latest polls suggest that Johnson and Stein will impact Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers slightly more than that of Donald Trump. In a tight race, the impact Gary Johnson and Jill Stein could alter the outcome. Though turnout would have to swing towards Trump in a big way for that scenario to be realized.