Virginia used to be a Republican stronghold. Virginia went Republican in each presidential election from 1968 to 2004. A couple of those elections were very close (e.g. 1976 and 1996) but several were Republican blowouts (e.g. 1972, 1984 and 1988). Things have changed. Barack Obama won Virginia by 6.3% in 2008 and by 3.9% in 2012. In fact, all Virginia presidential contests have been decided by less than 9% since and including 1992. As a result, Virginia has become a battleground state. Clocking in at 13 electoral votes, Virginia polls will be closely watched as the state is an important get for either party.
This Poll Hive 2016 Virginia Polls page illustrates presents an average of polls (aka poll of polls) for the Old Dominion. This page is continuously updated as new polls are published. So feel free to refresh this page to make sure you have the latest.
2016 Virginia Polls: Poll Hive Average
Chart 1: The first chart illustrates the Virginia Poll Hive average for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump since August 2015.
Points of interest: Hillary Clinton is well ahead in Virginia. While that lead is less than where it was prior to April, it does appear to be significant.
Chart 2: The chart above simply adds some notable dates to Chart 1.
Points of interest: It does appear that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia helped Donald Trump’s poll numbers. This is particularly interesting since this is the opposite of what happened nationally. Also, it appears that Hillary Clinton received a significant post-convention and first debate bounce.
2016 Virginia Polls: Poll Hive Average Spread
Chart 3: This third chart illustrates the spread between the two front runners.
Points of interest: While the spread is well within Hillary Clinton’s favor, her lead is below where it was back in January but is nevertheless significant.
Chart 4: This chart is the same as Chart 3 but with notable dates appended.
Points of interest: The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia appears to have helped Donald Trump. However, Hillary Clinton has extended her lead since just before the conventions.
2016 Virginia Polls: Third Party Candidates
Chart 5: The chart above presents the race when “third party” candidates are included.
Points of interest: The latest polling suggests that Johnson and Stein will hurt Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump.